The Russo-Ukrainian war has been captured on all our screens on a minute by minute basis with granular discussions on every implication the war has. Terming this as an invasion seems appropriate considering the unilateral actions committed by Putin. Not going much to other well discussed details, I argue that the biggest loser in this invasion is globalisation, and a well crafted inter-networked world order that thrived on economic integration.
Economic integration also envisioned that such autocratic aggression would be checked by the fear of economic reprisals. This entire idea came crashing with this invasion as Putin has continued despite tough economic and political sanctions while being insignificant to the harsh times that Russians will face in the near future. Economic globalisation with the quasi-free movement of goods and services across territorial boundaries was cemented after the end of the cold war. This system was thought to be the best to avoid nations confronting militarily because interconnectedness will make it a zero-sum game. But such ideas did not account for the primordial pull of narrow nationalistic urges that let nation-states act not necessarily in their interests. The Russian invasion illustrated that minimal geo-strategic interests made a pre-eminent power like Russia invade Ukraine when it very well knew that its energy exports would be targeted along with its global transactions sanctioned. Though Europe has still not decoupled itself from Russian energy exports nonetheless this economic relationship didn't stop Putin from launching an invasion.
Similarly, the Chinese aggression on the LAC took place despite India investing in an economic relationship with China and running a huge import bill for years. Both these events reinforced the idea that a nation has to be “atmanirbhar” or produce substantial goods on its own to survive any calamity. This strategy might not be a good one considering that one can’t produce all and also for producing you still need various inputs which are imported. Exports of vegetable oil, rare gasses like neon, wheat and corn from Ukraine abruptly stopped and made inflation surge quickly. Many nations dependent on these exports now have to reorient their supply chains and pay for events that are not remotely of their doing, thus affecting the globalised world order. The other fallout from this event is the globalised political order that was built to avoid such invasions and aggressions. Globalisation never was only about goods and services. It was about building a world that gave primacy to human rights, liberal values and welfare states caring for their most impoverished citizens.
These ideas have crashed with authoritarian leaders thriving on ever happening confrontations and the Russian invasion showed that global institutions like the UN are incapable of preventing such baseless aggression. Russia not caring for any global rules or consensus will only embolden many others to wage pointless confrontations that will fragment the world with no benefit accruing to anyone. This attack on the edifice of globalisation has been happening since the 2008 economic crash but such invasions have cemented the point of narrow chauvinistic goals like “America First” that made Trump bully all economic partners of the U.S and saw not much objection from Biden either.
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