The transatlantic partnership between Europe and US might be faltering is what one senses from diplomatic manoeuvres taking place. European leaders, majorly from the prosperous Western European nations apart from Britain, have been courting the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, in recent weeks. These leadership meetings are sending mixed signals on the transatlantic resolve to compete against Chinese hegemony. Though European leaders like French President Macron have termed it as European strategic autonomy, it seems more like a Western European ploy to churn the economic wheels from the Chinese partnership. This development amidst Macron’s statement of differing European views on Taiwanese security & sovereignty has left many shocked. The US administration under President Biden has been particularly energetic in forging partnerships in the Indo-Pacific & Europe to counter Chinese unilateralism and its dictation over many nation-states. Paradoxically, it was France who had a very early interest in the concept of the Indo-Pacific and its utility for a multilateral world. The US sees this courting of the Chinese President as an assault on the transatlantic resolve in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s close-knit association with China and its inferior stature concerning China following the war is established. Therefore the Russian state is economically in the position of a vassal to China, and its isolation from European markets has led it to complete submission of Chinese markets. Hence, their close partnership and Western European leadership’s efforts to distance themselves from American foreign policy is a direct assault on all efforts to isolate Russia for its breach of territorial sovereignty and weaken the resolve in Ukraine. As they deepen their strategic partnership, the Sino-Russian hope of exploiting the divisions within the West to transform the global order in their favour strengthens with the above actions of Western European leaders.
In such perplexed situations involving dichotomies, Central & Eastern European nations have sought more American security support amidst Russian aggression. These nation-states feel a direct threat of Russian aggrandisement and have emerged as a bloc, the “New Warsaw Pact”, to counter Russia. Similarly, the Nordic nations of Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland have agreed to integrate their air defences to counter Russia. The combination of Russian expansionism, passive reactions from Western European leaders and American support has begun to change the dynamics in Eastern Europe. These nation-states are now coalescing into a coherent regional alliance, operating both within and outside NATO.
Amidst this, I suggest a more proactive American support to Eastern European architecture of collective security to ensure Russian military aggression is both checked and responded to. The US should push these nation-states to play an active role in the Ukrainian war by channelling ammunition & finance. The US must also talk tough with Western Europe because any concession to Chinese expansionist behaviour in Asia will only bolden the Sino-Russian resolve to dictate other nation-states according to their military whims. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the ensuing war has left the European continent economically wounded. Majorly, it was Western Europe and primarily Germany & France, whose energy architecture was completely woven into Russian exports, that faced the economic fall-out. Western Europe is again intertwining itself with China for economic benefits, and the huge Chinese markets are Beijing’s best instrument to counter any uniformity in Transatlantic resolve. The consequence will bolster Chinese unilateralism in Asia & the Indo-Pacific and might lead to Chinese adventures in Taiwan. If this does happen, it won’t be possible for the West to negate this violation of sovereignty, and decoupling from the Chinese economy will lead to catastrophic global consequences. Western European leadership must understand that Russia & China are hands-in-glove to show the West, led by the US, of their hegemony and dismantle any territorial sovereignty they feel doesn’t deserve to exist. This will completely shake up the post-World War II global structure established with the United Nations on the core foundational principle of respect for sovereignty, leading to chaos and global turmoil. Hence, the leadership of Western European nation-states must partner with the US to economically compete with China, march ahead in emerging energy technologies, and decouple from the Chinese supply chain to a large extent. Businesses and industry leaders in these nations and the US as well must be made to toe the government line because the existence of production units & supply chains in autocratic nations does the world greater harm in the long run.
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