India’s foreign policy has been under considerable pressure in these past few weeks as the Russian invasion has made the global order focus on completely different priorities than what they were gearing up for. In this context, the Indian position has been complex and nuanced but the western nations are applying varied forms of diplomatic outreach to change our stance. India’s position has been against the violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty of an independent nation but at the same time to not finger-point and hold Russia accountable for the above violation. This is prickly as we went tom-tom around the globe of Chinese aggression and territorial violation on our borders. The situation became even more complicated for India with Russia and Putin being accused of war crimes due to the discovery of hundreds of civilian bodies in and around Kyiv. Accusations of war crimes violating the Vienna Convention is a serious offence with ramifications. Although Russia doesn't recognise the International Criminal Court, it will still if tried, will lose any tenable ground to defend this invasion. Therefore we can assume that India’s carefully crafted foreign policy space is shrinking and our choices will define our status post this conflict.
Right now everyone is courting us starting from the West to Russia, even the Chinese are being more friendly to keep another major power-India on the same page as theirs in this conflict. But I do think that it’s just a matter of time before our enhanced importance will decline with some post-war normalisations. Hence Indian foreign policy establishment should choose a path that aligns with our geo-economic characteristics. This path I recommend should be of unequivocal condemnation of violence against civilians and violation of sovereignty albeit reminding Europe of its continued energy purchases which indirectly finance Ukrainian destruction. India should take its chances by tacitly supporting Western nations and I know our defence purchases along with critical technology imports from Russia is a major obstacle in this path but we have various points of convergence with the West than Russia. Apart from the old nostalgia and military imports, the Indo-Russian ties have been frozen for decades. In contrast, our people to people ties, soaring trade, the flow of cross-border services, and cultural and all other nodes of connection with western countries are both significant and cemented. Any hindrance in these ties will cost our people who move for studies, employment, high skill high pay jobs to the west and also cost us through trade-balance. It is the U.S with which we have our largest surplus balance of payments, strong people ties and cultural bonds because of movies, music and our IT exports along with IT employees. Any disturbances in this relationship will be disastrous for a post-1991 liberalised India. We must similarly take note of the strong axis that the Russia- China relationship has garnered. Moving forward this relationship will draw strength to strength and try to build a parallel order of autocratic regimes with scant regard for rules-based global order and territorial integrity of other nation-states. This has been exemplified with E.U member Hungary under autocrat Viktor Orbán already stating that he won't stop energy imports from Russia.
Thus I strongly advocate India’s condemnation of invasion and also using the G-20 summit to construct further convergences with western economies. Our economic growth needs continued FDI in substantial amounts and this can be achieved only by western powers. Therefore sense dictates us to be smart now to prevent any backlash against Russia or China from affecting us.
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